Where is a product or for that matter a customer in its lifecycle? When will a customer return to my business and how much will it buy? How much promotion do I need to move a product out of the channel and when should I begin promoting? When is the right time to invest in product improvement and when to end a product?
All businesses know it wastes 50% of marketing capital but do not know which 50%. Most promotions are late or excessive, products are timed on a guess, product portfolios develop by ad-hoc sales, and customers are marketed to year-round regardless if they are a seasonal buyer or are even a customer anymore. All this leads to revenue generation by shotgun vs. rifle, and revenue growth is determined by the market vs. a plan.
With the embedded AI-Enabled trend prediction, find the maturity of products and customers in their lifecycle. Learn when they buy, what they buy. Cascade into learning the optimum product portfolio. Determine which customers are valuable and what levels of incentive are required to keep their loyalty. Combine with AI-Enabled demand forecast to granularly calculate the timing, level, and place of product and promotion.
Even modern demand planning tools claim to improve spreadsheet forecasts only by 20% to 30%. As such, demand planning remains an art that is as much biased as unbiased. Planners extract the demand plan into spreadsheets then adjust. In the end, it’s the planners “feeling” about the demand that creates the final demand numbers. Guess right, and all is OK. Guess wrong, and too much or too little capital is deployed resulting in diminished margin or missed revenue.
If the typical demand plan is 80% to 60% right then its 20% to 40% wrong. We know all forecasts are wrong, it’s just a matter of degree – and that’s where the cost is. As such, most businesses plan on the high side to assure revenue but this has the effect to increase costs thus reducing margin.
Our One-Touch AI-Enabled forecasting uses no ML so planners don’t have to be data scientists to, with One-Touch, produce an unbiased AI generated statistical forecast for any field(s) of data at any dimension(s). From here, you can layer on-top the planner’s knowledge of the future; e.g. knowing a customer is going to increase its order by 10%., but not the planner’s guess of demand. As such, higher accuracy longer range demand forecasts are produced.
Every company has a trend of its demand at every level; e.g. company, region, brand, product, etc. But that trend is of the past. It’s a YoY variance analysis or a dashboard to visualize the past trend. As such, decisions based on historical trends follow the same course; i.e. downward trends need to be fixed and upward trends are OK.
Mangers are particularly good at fixing bad trends, but without unbiased demand signaling, they waste 30% to 60% of their time on the wrong trend problems or missing opportunities in the trend. This can result in achieving only 10% to 50% of the potential revenue improvement opportunity.
Built-in AI-Enabled trend prediction signals those bad trends predicted to get worse, bad trends to get better, good trends to get better, and good trends to get worse. The first, signals the items that require a manger’s time to fix. The second, signals the items that are already reversing and don’t require a manager’s time to fix. The third, signals unseen opportunities for a price increase to spur revenue growth. And the fourth, signals the good trends to go bad so the manager can take action now to close the barn door before the horse leaves.
Which customers have a propensity to leave? When will they leave? How can we identify who they are and have runway to try to prevent?
We all hope customers will stay with us – but they don’t. And when they leave they leave a hole in revenue. Customer churn for some business is 25% annually, meaning they have to have a gross growth rate of 30% just to get a net growth of 5%.
With the embedded AI-Enabled trend prediction and analytical scoring, we find the customers who have a propensity to leave in the next six months to give you time to try to retain them.